Brazil’s auto exports surge on strong Argentine demand
Brazil’s auto exports are set to rise much more than earlier expected in 2025, the automakers’ association Anfavea stated on Thursday, crediting the strong need from neighbouring Argentina for the upward revision to its prediction.
Anfavea Revises Export Forecast Upward by Over 100,000 Units
Brazil’s automotive industry is set to benefit from a sharp increase in exports, particularly to Argentina, even as domestic sales slow due to high interest rates and global trade uncertainties.
According to new projections released by Anfavea—Brazil’s national association of motor vehicle manufacturers—auto exports are now expected to rise 38.4% year-on-year to 552,000 units in 2025. This marks a significant revision from the previous estimate of a 7.5% increase to 428,000 units.
Argentina Drives Export Boom
The revised outlook is “mainly driven by the Argentine market,” said Anfavea president Igor Calvet, noting that exports to Argentina more than doubled in the first seven months of 2025. From January to July, shipments surged 156.5% year-on-year to 183,905 vehicles, raising Argentina’s share of Brazil’s auto exports to 58.9%, up from 35.1% in 2024.
Argentina, alongside Brazil, is part of the Mercosur trade bloc, and recent austerity measures by President Javier Milei have boosted auto imports as part of broader economic reforms amid high inflation.
Other major export destinations for Brazilian vehicles include Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, and Mexico, though shipments to Uruguay and Mexico declined in the first seven months of the year.
Domestic Market Slows Amid High Interest Rates
While export prospects are brightening, Brazil’s domestic auto market is under pressure. Anfavea has cut its 2025 vehicle sales growth forecast to 5%, or 2.765 million units, down from an earlier projection of 6.3% growth. The revision is primarily due to persistently high local interest rates, with the benchmark Selic rate at 15%—its highest level in nearly 20 years.
U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Adds to Industry Concerns
Adding to the uncertainty are the effects of U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump. Calvet warned that tariffs on imported goods could have an indirect impact on Brazil’s truck segment, as reduced product shipments would lower demand for road transportation, which moves up to 70% of Brazilian goods.